Coffee News Recap, 9 May: Brazil 2025/26 estimates up to 55.7 million bags, WoC Jakarta to host World Brewers Cup from 15 to 17 May & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Following largely negative predictions about Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee output, Conab (the National Supply Company) revised its forecast to 55.7 million 60 kg bags, up by 2.7%. This estimate is higher than the total 2024/25 harvest, despite adverse weather, the arabica “off-year”, and a 1.4% reduction in the country’s coffee-producing areas due to pruning.

Conab anticipates that the arabica crop will total around 37 million bags, which would be down 6.6% from last year but still up from the January forecast of 34.7 million bags. As a result, we may see arabica prices steadily come down, but only time will tell.

Next week, two key industry events will take place: the London Coffee Festival and World of Coffee Jakarta. The latter will host the 2025 World Brewers Cup, where some of the world’s best baristas and coffee professionals will compete in the Indonesian capital, home to a thriving café culture that blends tradition and innovation.

Set to become the fastest-growing coffee market in the world over the next few years, Asia leads and redefines many global specialty coffee trends, from premiumisation to beverage customisation. With Luckin Coffee expected to open its first US location in New York City (date still unknown), the Chinese coffee chain is set to give Starbucks – already struggling with declining consumer loyalty – a run for its money, offering Asian-inspired signature drinks at a fraction of the cost of its competitors.

Top stories of the week

• Wed, 7 May – Luckin Coffee to open first US location in New York City. The Chinese coffee chain’s first US store will be in the East Village, although an opening date has not been announced. Luckin’s entry into the US market will pose significant challenges for competitors like Starbucks. (Beijing, China)

Industry news

• Mon, 5 May – Black Rifle Coffee Company posts significant losses for 2025 Q1. Net revenue decreased 8.6% to US $90 million compared to US $98.4 million in 2024 Q1. Wholesale revenue decreased 6% to US $56.8 million from US $60.4 million in the same period last year. The company asserts that its distribution partnership with KDP will support further growth, but that tariffs will also have an impact. (Salt Lake City, Utah, US)

• Wed, 7 May – Saudi coffee chain Half Million plans Iraq expansion. Founded in 2018, Half Million operates 65 stores in Saudi Arabia and one in London, UK. The Baghdad, Iraq Mall store will open in Q4 2025, making Half Million the second Saudi-branded coffee chain in the country. (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

• Thu, 8 May – McDonald’s to trial CosMc’s beverages on core menus. The fast food chain will test CosMc’s espresso-based and custom-blended drinks, including Churro Shaken Espresso and Fruity Popping Boba, at select US restaurants in H2 2025, partnering with franchisees to integrate the drinks into its standard menus and boost beverage profitability. (Chicago, Illinois, United States)

• Fri, 9 May – JDE Peet’s on track for positive 2025 outlook and proposes Rob de Groot board appointment. The most recent interim update shows Q1 volumes rebounded strongly since March, with disciplined pricing offsetting 28% higher green bean costs. The group also discontinued the roll-out of its L’OR Barista machines in the US, and transferred the management of the L’OR capsules business in the US to Peet’s. Rob de Groot, ex-Reckitt Benckiser exec, joins as non-executive pending AGM approval. (Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

• Fri, 9 May – Swiss Water reports 61% revenue growth in Q1. The decaf processor’s processed volumes rose 6%, revenue reached CA $62.3 million, and gross profit hit CA $7.3 million, representing an increase of 42%. (Vancouver BC, Canada)

New launch

• Mon, 5 May – Starbucks will roll out home-compostable takeaway cups across Europe. The cups and lids, designed with Transcend Packaging, Qwarzo® and Metsä Board, are available in ten European countries, including Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and Hungary, before coming to the UK and Ireland later this year. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 6 May – Onyx Coffee Lab launches Barista Provisions beverage powders. The specialty coffee roaster’s new ready-to-use beverage powders include Chai Latte, Golden Milk Latte, Matcha Latte, Onyx Delight (a blend of honey, vanilla, and cinnamon), and Sipping Chocolate editions, which are available as retail and wholesale products. (Arkansas, US)

• Thu, 8 May – Ukraine’s Lviv Croissants launches in South Korea. Following launches in Europe and the US, the Ukrainian bakery chain opened a 1,200 sq ft store in Seoul, featuring a menu catering to local taste preferences and food and beverage trends. (Odessa, Ukraine)

• Fri, 9 May – BRITA Professional launches remote iQ Meter. The brand’s new meter enables businesses to monitor and manage their filters in real time remotely, ensuring precise filter usage without disrupting daily operations. (Taunusstein, Germany)

Milestone

• Wed, 7 May – Fair Trade USA appoints Felipe Arango as new CEO. Arango joined the non-profit as Chief Operating Officer in December 2023 and has held the post of interim CEO since Paul Rice stepped down at the end of 2024 after 26 years. (Oakland, California, US)

Trade & production

• Fri, 9 May – Regenagri launches updated regenerative agriculture standards. The global regenerative agriculture programme launched several new and updated standards, including its Content Standard, CoC Food and Textile standards, and Claims Requirements with clearer chain-of-custody, audit and marketing guidelines, and new technical guidance documents. (London, United Kingdom)

Research

Events & competitions

• Wed, 7 May – La Cimbali debuts at NAMA Show 2025 with fully-automatic machines. The event, which is one of the most important convenience service trade shows, runs until 9 May at the Las Vegas Convention Center. La Cimbali is exhibiting the S15, S-Lite, S20 Fresh Brew machines, ideal for self-service environments. (Milan, Italy)

• Thu, 8 May – Barista League Latin America debuts in Guadalajara. Twenty regional baristas will compete head-to-head at C3 Stage, joined by six special guest judges, a curated Brew Bar and partners including Oatly, Toddy, and Rancilio for games, challenges, and prizes in a one-night event. (Guadalajara, Mexico)

• Fri, 9 May – London Coffee Festival to return from 15 to 18 May. Alongside the Roasters Village, Brew School, and Latte Art Live, the event will host the Coffee Masters competition, where 16 baristas will showcase their skills across a range of disciplines. (London, UK)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Wed, 30 Apr – YouTubers launch Rodd’s Iced Coffee in UK supermarkets. YouTube content creators Will Lenney (WillNE) and James Marriott launched the iced RTD coffee brand in Sainsbury’s stores. The range includes 100% Colombian arabica cold brew oat latte, vanilla matcha latte, and waffle oat latte. (London, UK)

Photo credits: Specialty Coffee Association, World Coffee Championships, Onyx Coffee Lab, The Barista League

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