Coffee News Recap, 14 Feb: Arabica futures fall most in two months but rebound to US $4.40/lb, Panama Gesha sells for over US $10,000/kg at the Dubai Coffee Auction & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Prices are the burning issue in the coffee industry – and will be for the foreseeable future. On Monday, arabica futures increased by 6% to an all-time high of US $4.38/lb after reports that producers in Brazil, who have already sold an estimated 80% of their harvests, are reluctant to sell more.

Limited stockpiles are likely causing panic buying, which only drives market prices even higher. Until Brazil and Vietnam produce good harvests (which isn’t expected until mid-2026) or demand drops significantly in consuming countries, this upward trajectory will continue.

Zooming out from the C market, other records have also been broken this week. At the first-ever Dubai Coffee Auction, co-hosted by M-Cultivo at the fourth World of Coffee Dubai event, international buyers bid on 16 lots grown by 11 of the world’s top producers.

Panama’s Finca Sophia sold for US $10,020/kg, making it one of the most expensive in the world. A Kona SL 34 sold for US $910/kg – eight times the previous highest price paid for Hawaiian coffee – while Los Rodriguez’s La Llama lot became the most expensive Bolivian coffee ever sold, fetching US $350/kg. A new record was also set for Ethiopian coffee when Gesha Village’s Oma Natural received a bid of US $1,100/kg.

The auction came at a fitting time as market prices reached their highest levels in history, showcasing just how far the opposite ends of the spectrum can be from one another. But whether it’s US $4/lb or US $10,000/kg, historic prices raise many questions about the value of coffee.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 10 Feb – Reborn Coffee secures US $60 million financing commitments to support expansion. The California roaster & café chain received the financing from Arena Investors and Arena Business Solutions, including a US $10 million debenture offering and a US $50 million credit equity line. Reborn says the funds will support expansion, flagship store openings, and product innovation. (Brea, California, US)

• Tue, 11 Feb – Löfbergs completes full acquisition of Danish roaster Peter Larsen Kaffe. The Swedish coffee group acquired a 100% stake in Peter Larsen Kaffe. The roaster’s CEO, Claus Bertelsen, will step down in July 2025. Under his tenure, the Danish roaster grew its market share fivefold, becoming a key sustainable brand in Denmark, Löfbergs’ second-largest market. (Karlstad, Sweden)

• Tue, 11 Feb – MTPak Coffee launches the “Producer of the Year” contest. The competition, supported by PureLock, MTPak’s range of green coffee bags, celebrates sustainable practices and innovation in coffee production. The application deadline is 19 March 2025, and all finalists will be announced in late March. The winner will receive US $5,000 in custom packaging and media coverage. (Shanghai, China)

• Wed, 12 Feb – Dubai Coffee Auction breaks three records and sells Panama Gesha for over US $10,000/kg. The winning lot from Panama’s Finca Sophia sold for US $10,020/kg. A Kona SL 34 set a new record for Hawaiian coffee after selling for US$910/kg. Los Rodriguez’s La Llama lot became the most expensive Bolivian coffee ever, fetching US $350/kg. A new record was also set for Ethiopian coffee when Gesha Village’s Oma Natural received a bid of US $1,100/kg. (Dubai, UAE)

• Wed, 12 Feb – Arabica futures fall most in two months but rebound to US $4.40/lb. Arabica futures declined the most in the last two months on the New York stock market, but rebounded to an all-time high of US $4.41/lb within three days. Supply concerns, driven by adverse weather in Brazil and tariff fears, persist, driving the upward trajectory. (New York City, New York, US)

• Thu, 13 Feb – Pret A Manger drops plans to double subscription fee after customer backlash. The Club Pret subscription fee will be capped at £5 (US $6.25), offering users 50% off up to five daily barista-made beverages. The coffee and food-to-go chain, which has adjusted its subscription multiple times since 2020, aims to compete on value amid rising competition in the UK market. (London, UK)

• Thu, 13 Feb – Three UAE Coffee Champions crowned at the fourth World of Coffee Dubai event. The Espresso Lab’s Aldy Nugroho is the 2025 UAE Barista Champion, Mondrick Alpas from Goldbox x Heirloom is the UAE Latte Art Champion, and Raha Shahsavar became the first-ever UAE National Roasting Champion. Bluewater’s water purification systems received the Best New Product award, while Subko and El Boske received Coffee Design awards. (Dubai, UAE)

Industry news

• Wed, 12 Feb – Oatly aims for group-level profitability after reducing 2024 losses. The oat milk brand reduced its adjusted EBITDA loss from US $158 million in 2023 to US $35.3 million. Revenue grew 5% to US $824 million, with North America and Europe showing solid growth. The company also announced the closure of its Singapore facility and halted construction of a second plant in China, focusing on existing production capacity. (Malmö, Sweden)

• Fri, 14 Feb – Nestlé surpasses sales forecasts but warns of margin squeezes. The company reported solid sales growth driven by price increases but expects a lower 2025 profit margin as it “invests in growth”. Despite record-high coffee and cocoa prices, Nestlé says it will absorb some costs. Shares rose nearly 6% after the announcement. (Vevey, Switzerland)

New launch & milestone

• Mon, 10 Feb – Yum China reports Q4 results, raises dividends by 50%. Yum China, which operates KFC (one of China’s biggest coffee chains), reported robust 2024 results, with Q4 system sales up 4% year-on-year and operating profit rising 36%. Full-year revenue reached a record US $11.3 billion with 16,395 stores. The company returned US $1.5 billion to shareholders and plans further returns in 2025/26. (Shanghai, China)

• Tue, 11 Feb – Japan’s % Arabica debuts in Hungary with Budapest outlet. The store was designed by Paris-based Ciguë with interiors by Hungarian ceramics brand Zsolnay. The launch aligns with Hungary’s growing East Asian tourism, as % Arabica plans further European expansion, including Spain, Germany, and Italy. (Budapest, Hungary)

Research

Trade & production

• Mon, 10 Feb – ICO’s composite price surpasses US $3.10/lb as global arabica stocks fall. The I-CIP rose 3.5% in January as global arabica stocks fell 11.7%, while robusta stocks increased 3.8%. Global green bean exports dropped 10.5% year-on-year in December 2024 to 9.73 million 60kg bags, with robusta exports down 19% and Brazilian naturals down 11.3%. Asia-Pacific shipments fell 31.2%, while Africa’s rose 8%. (London, UK)

• Tue, 11 Feb – Brazil’s Cecafé addresses logistical challenges with key stakeholders. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council met with the Ministry of Ports (MPor) in Brasília to address port delays and extra costs from cargo growth that reduce coffee export revenue. MPor cited investments at Santos Port and a TECON10 auction, while Cecafé urged continued public-private dialogue to ease risks. (Brasília, Brazil)

• Wed, 12 Feb – ICE raises margin requirements. For March 2025 contracts, margins rose from US $8,806 per contract to US $9,829. The most active May 2025 contract’s margins increased from US $9,499 to US $10,410 per contract. (New York City, New York, US)

• Thu, 13 Feb – Brazil exports almost 4 million 60kg bags in January 2025. These figures are 1.6% lower than the same month last year, while revenue surged 60% to over US $1.3 billion due to higher prices. Arabica led exports, with US, Germany, and Italy as key export markets. (São Paulo, Brazil)

Events & competitions

• Fri, 14 Feb – IWCA to host networking breakfast at the 2025 NCA Convention. The association’s annual breakfast networking event will take place from 8:15 to 10:30 local time on 7 March at this year’s NCA convention in Houston, Texas, US. The session will include a keynote speaker and invited guests to share their stories. (Springfield, Illinois, US)

• Fri, 14 Feb – Call for judges for the 16th annual Hawaii Coffee Association Cupping Competition. The judging and evaluation of samples will take place from 27 to 30 May at Roastronix in Missouri City, Texas. The winners of the cupping competition will be announced at the HCA’s annual event, scheduled for 17 to 19 July. Prior judging experience is not required, but applicants should be able to identify coffee flavour and aroma. (Kona, Hawaii)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Tue, 4 Feb – Costa Coffee named UK’s favourite chain for the 15th consecutive year. Over 5,000 consumers voted in the World Coffee Portal poll, crowning Costa Coffee as the nation’s favourite branded coffee shop. Founded in 1971, Costa operates more than 2,677 stores and 12,000 Express machines in the UK, making it the largest coffee chain in the nation. (London, UK)

• Sat, 8 Feb – Black Sheep Coffee debuts first functional coffee range. The new line-up includes lattes infused with mushrooms, prebiotics, and Lion’s Mane, offering benefits from gut health to mental clarity, according to the coffee roaster. The range includes Gut Shot, Beauty Shot, and Brain Shot options, marking a first for the mainstream coffee market. (London, UK)

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