Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council Responds to 50% Tariff Threat
The head of the Brazilian coffee exporters council CECAFÉ said 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from Brazil would result in economic losses on both sides, with higher prices likely to be passed down to U.S. consumers.
CECAFÉ CEO Marcos Matos told Daily Coffee News late last week that the organization has been engaging in dialogue with Brazilian government leaders, as well as the U.S. National Coffee Association (NCA), in strategic negotiations.
“The losses are still incalculable, but there will almost certainly be an impact on trade and demand — with the effects ultimately being felt most by the end consumer,” Matos told DCN.
The United States is the largest coffee-consuming market in the world, with the equivalent of approximately 24.5 million 60-kilogram bags imported in 2024/25, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer by a wide margin, currently holds an approximately 32% market share in the U.S., with imports to the U.S. growing by 34% in 2024 alone. According to CECAFÉ, that translated into foreign exchange revenue of approximately $2.05 billion.
The trade dynamics between the two key coffee nations are further complicated by Brazil’s status as the second-largest consumer of coffee globally, plus the forthcoming EU deforestation-free supply chain law, which is expected to impact EU coffee imports.
“The U.S. market, as the world’s largest coffee consumer, is well-established in terms of industry and value creation, with 76% of Americans drinking coffee,” CECAFÉ’s Matos said. “Just as the U.S. market is irreplaceable from a consumption perspective, Brazil is equally irreplaceable in terms of production and supply.”
Matos noted that the global green coffee supply has also been affected in recent years by numerous production challenges, including “climate anomalies,” leading to historically low stockpiles.
“In this context, efforts must focus on negotiation and on clearly demonstrating the strategic economic value of the trade relationship, reinforcing a commercial partnership with the U.S. that has stood strong for over 200 years,” Matos said. “Alternatively, other major consumer markets — in Europe and Asia, where coffee consumption has been growing steadily — could step in to absorb volumes originally intended for the U.S.”
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